Energy

A look at the future

The current fuel cycle exploits, with current reactors, just a small part of the energy that can be extracted from uranium found in mines and leaves a legacy of waste that has to be confined for long periods of time. It is obvious that, to truly close the cycle and to fully exploit the potential of the nuclear fuel available in nature, it is necessary to have not only thermal reactors with high burning rates but also “fast” type reactors, where neutrons do not undergo a slowing process to kick-start the fission reaction. These reactors are capable of exploiting much better the fuel found in nature with a totally different production of waste, a lot less problematic compared to current reactors.
At the current rhythm of nuclear energy production uranium resources translate into a 65-year energy availability with current reactor consumption equal to 66.000 tons/year. However the exploitation of Estimated Additional Resources of the second group (EAR-II) would guarantee energy for another 260 years without any retreatment process. Considering also the Speculative Resources and neglecting the uranium contained in the oceans there would be another 360 years of energy production available.
Currently the supply of uranium is based for 50-60% of the total on extraction from mines, while the rest derives from:

• stock of natural uranium and/or enriched uranium of civil or military origin. In the previous years more uranium than necessary has been extracted: this has caused a build-up of the element, partly due to a limited development of nuclear energy
• production compared to what was expected;
• reprocessing of exhausted fuel;
• use of 235U of military origin, which derives from the dismantling of nuclear warheads.

Some calculations for the future
The consumption of nuclear fuel depends on the type of reactor where it is used (thermal reactor or fast reactors), on the type of treatment given to exhausted fuel (with or without reprocessing) and on the expenses we are willing to bear for uranium extraction (keeping in mind that the cost of fuel weighs on the cost of the energy produced for about 20%).
Taking as a reference the nuclear energy produced in 2002 (2570 TWh) we can make some predictions regarding the duration of uranium resources on the basis of the technology used for combustion and of the type of exploitable resources.
Obviously these estimates have to be corrected with the effective values of electricity produced with nuclear power, which are increasing compared to 2002.
It is foreseen that from now to 2020 demand for uranium will increase, from a minimum of 10% (up to 73.496 tU/year) to a maximum of 29% (up to 86.190 tU/year) compared to today, on the basis of projections respectively by shortcoming and excess of the installed electronuclear power.

All data are taken from sources NEA and IAEA 2002